The Turkish foreign minister has implied that an understanding has been reached with an Iran-backed Shiite militia force — the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF or Al-Hashd al-Shaabi) — in Iraq regarding the cleansing of the Sinjar region in northern Iraq of elements of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey considers a terrorist organization.
However, experts have concerns about this collaboration since the group under Iran’s control has had close ties with the PKK in the past, and they claim that this collaboration, if successful, could lead to an increase in Iran’s influence in the region.
In an interview with Al Arabiya on Sunday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said discussions have been ongoing with the PMF in Sinjar for a military offensive against the PKK. Fidan emphasized the significance of this dialogue, underscoring the evolving role of the the PMF in Iraq following the passage of new laws. Collaborating closely with Falah al-Fayyad, the head of the PMF, Fidan expressed confidence in the force’s commitment to eradicating the PKK presence in Sinjar. He outlined a two-stage plan, starting with the siege of Sinjar, followed by a demand for PKK withdrawal from the region. Fidan emphasized the necessity for Iraqi soldiers to confront the PKK when needed.
“If the PKK refuses to leave, it will be necessary for every Iraqi soldier who loves his country to fight against this terrorist organization that has occupied his homeland,” he added.
Fidan met with al-Fayyad on August 24, 2023 in Baghdad and again on February 19, 2024 in Ankara.
The PMF, a coalition primarily composed of Iran-backed Shiite militias, emerged in 2014 in response to a call made by Ayatollah Ali Sistani, an important religious authority in Iraq’s Shiite community, to combat the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Despite being integrated into the Iraqi military in 2016, many argue that it has evolved into one of Tehran’s formidable hard power elements in Iraq.
Along with the military strength of Shiite militia groups, the PMF’s influence in parliament has grown through affiliated political parties, allowing it to gain bureaucratic footholds and bolstering Iran’s sway in the country.
Members of militias in the PMF on January 20, 2024 launched attacks on the Ain al-Assad base in Iraq, where US troops are stationed, as well as targeting the forces of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. Unchecked and independent assaults frequently spark tensions between the Baghdad administration and the PMF.
On March 14, 2024 Fidan and Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein met in Baghdad for a security mechanism discussion. Accompanied by high-level officials from both sides, including Turkey’s minister of defense, director of national intelligence and deputy interior minister as well as Iraq’s minister of defense, national security advisor, Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) chairman and deputy director of intelligence along with the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) interior minister, the meeting aimed to address mutual security concerns.
A joint statement issued following the security meeting emphasized that the presence of the PKK in Iraq, labeled a terrorist organization by Turkey and its Western allies, constitutes a violation of the Iraqi constitution. The statement also noted Turkey’s appreciation for Iraq’s decision to designate the PKK as a banned organization.
Turkey conducts military operations in Iraq as needed to combat the PKK while also maintaining several military bases in northern Iraq. Before 2018 Turkey had approximately 10 bases in the area, whereas today there are numerous small bases and forward operating centers. Among them, the Bashiqa Base stands out and has occasionally been the subject of controversy in the media due to being targeted by the PKK several times in 2024. However, the location and size of the other bases in Iraq are not disclosed for security reasons.
On April 22, 2024 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made a visit to Baghdad, the first by a Turkish president in 12 years. During his time there a series of agreements were signed, focusing on defense and economic cooperation between Turkey and Iraq. Following his visit to Baghdad, Erdogan proceeded to Erbil, the capital of the Iraqi Kurdistan region, becoming the first Turkish president to visit the city.
In a previous statement President Erdogan announced that comprehensive military measures would be taken against the PKK presence in northern Iraq during the summer of 2024, indicating the completion of Operation Claw-Lock initiated in 2019.
Nordic Monitor previously reported that officials from the Turkish Ministry of Defense told journalists on March 21 that the objective of the military operation is to establish a 30-kilometer secure zone along the Turkey-Iraq border, aiming to extend its impact to the southern regions of Iraq, thereby breaking the PKK’s influence in those areas.
While the PKK has been extending its influence to regions controlled by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) in Iraqi Kurdistan, such as Sulaymaniyah and Asos, near the Iranian border, in recent years, it is also actively seeking to increase its presence in the Sinjar region near the Syrian border.
Despite Fidan’s positive approach to the Iran-backed group, the Turkish military’s confidence in Iran regarding the fight against the PKK remains weak. Defense Minister Yaşar Güler, speaking on CNN Türk on May 2, said they have provided information about PKK members crossing from Turkey into Iran but that Iranian authorities did not cooperate. “We talk with our Iranian friends. We say, ‘They [terrorists] crossed from here, went there, we are following them. We look at images from UAVs. Our Iranian friends respond, ‘We looked there, there is no one.’ This is not a pleasant approach. Of course, we are uncomfortable.”
An analysis contributed by several Middle East experts and published in the Arabic edition of Asharq Al-Awsat, a Saudi-backed newspaper based in London, on March 25, 2024, suggests that the PMF will utilize its agreement with Turkey to strengthen its influence in a strategically important region for Iraq, Iran and Turkey. The military operation is theoretically expected to end with the expulsion of PKK militants from the mountains of northern Iraq. However, if Tehran does not play an unexpected card at a critical moment, Turkey’s buffer zone will merge with the Iranian corridor where Iranian groups are stationed, extending from the western part of Syria.
